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Real Estate Outlook: Numbers Best in Months Every week, it seems, there's a battle of conflicting numbers when it comes to housing. The latest existing home sales survey from the National Association of Realtors is a perfect example. You may have seen the news reports about another bad month for resales -- down for the sixth straight month, according to the Associated Press, to the "lowest level" in almost a decade. But take a closer look: Yes, resales were lower by four tenths of one percent in January, but they were down from an upwardly-revised total for December. Drill down just a little deeper and you find that resales of single family detached houses were actually up in the latest month -- up by one-half of one percent. Condominium and cooperative sales, on the other hand, took a sharper drop -- falling by 6.5 percent, and that dragged down the national sales total overall. So the real news was mixed: Sales of detached single family units ROSE in January while condos and cooperatives were down. Either way you present it, though, total resales were essentially flat from month to month, hardly as dramatically negative as the scare headlines had it. Maybe we're at bottom, maybe not, but the fact is: Sales are not falling off the charts. Also last week, there were some other mildly positive economic signs: Construction starts of new houses rose by eight tenths of a percent, and home builder confidence -- as measured by the Wells Fargo/National Association of Home Builders poll -- rose slightly as builders reported seeing stronger flows of shopper traffic through their model homes. Again, there's nothing dramatically positive here, but the numbers are better than they've been in months. They simply got drowned out by all the gloom-mongering. Even the Conference Board, a research group that represents a broad spectrum of U.S. industries far beyond real estate, said things are beginning to look up for housing. Chief economist Gail Fosler said in a report last week that "the housing market correction is about over … . Housing affordability is beginning to improve, and with the recent interest rate cuts and house price declines, it should improve further." January and February, said Fosler, "are not big months for housing, but rising affordability (plus favorable demographic trends) bode well" for the overall outlook. Fosler's economic report preceded last week's jumps in mortgage rates -- taking 30-year rates back over 6 percent -- but her forecast on where housing is headed is significant. Someone's got to call the turnaround. Fosler thinks it could start this Spring. We'll watch and see. Fed Ready to Cut Interest Rates Again WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is ready to lower interest rates again to brace the wobbly economy even as zooming oil prices spread inflation, Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled to Congress on Wednesday. He is fighting to keep the economy afloat after mighty blows from the housing and credit crises, while trying to contain inflation. For now, the priority is shoring up the economy, Bernanke suggested in an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee. He pledged anew to slice a key interest rate and help the economy, which many fear is on the verge of a recession, if not already in one. "The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable" since the summer, the Fed chief told lawmakers. Since then, the housing slump has worsened, credit problems have intensified and the job market has deteriorated. Bernanke said that combination of bad news has made people and businesses more cautious about spending and investing, further weakening the economy. The country should prepare for "sluggish economic activity in the near term," Bernanke said. Concern is growing about the possible return of stagflation, when stagnant growth is combined with rising inflation, for the first time since the 1970s. Were energy prices to continue to rise at a sharp clip -- something the Fed does not anticipate -- it would "create a very difficult problem" for the economy, Bernanke said. Inflation would spread and growth would be further restrained, he said. If that happened, it would be a "very tough situation," he added. The Fed is prepared to lower rates again to bolster economic growth, Bernanke said. The Fed "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks," he said, sticking closely to assurances he offered earlier this month. The central bank started lowering a key interest rate in September. Over just eight days in January, the Fed shaved 1.25 percentage points, the biggest one-month reduction in a quarter-century. Economists and Wall Street investors predict the Fed will cut rates again at its next meeting, March 18. Some analysts believe rates will drop again in April. Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight, said Bernanke's remarks "keeps the door wide open for further rate cuts." On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials edged up 9.36 points. Bernanke said that at some point this year, the Fed will need to "assess whether the stance of monetary policy is properly calibrated" to foster the Fed's objectives of price stability "in an environment of downside risks to growth." He was hopeful that previous rate reductions and the $168 billion economic aid plan of tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business would energize the economy in the second half of 2008. As the Fed chief began his first day of back-to-back appearances on Capitol Hill to discuss the economy, there was more bad news on the housing and manufacturing fronts. Sales of new homes fell in January for a third straight month. Orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods dropped in January by the largest amount in five months. Bernanke has come under some criticism for not acting sooner in cutting rates. But Alabama Rep. Spencer Bachus, the committee's top Republican, expressed sympathy. "There is perhaps no other public figure in America who has been subjected to as much Monday morning quarterbacking as you have" over the past months, Bachus said. The committee chairman, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., suggested the economy is not suffering through a garden-variety slowdown. He made clear that he wasn't trying to put the R-word -- recession -- in Bernanke's mouth. "I'm not going to be responsible for the nervous people at the stock market who overreact when you twitch your nose," Frank told Bernanke. "But the problems we now have are different." Many of those woes are linked to the housing meltdown. Bernanke was asked when he thought the housing market might stabilize. It's possible, he said, that by "later this year it will stop being such a big drag directly" on the economy. But home prices probably will decline into next year, he added. "It is very difficult to know, and we've been wrong before," Bernanke said. Even as the Fed tries to bolster the economy, it must remain mindful of inflationary pressures, Bernanke said. Oil prices, which have set records, briefly shot past $102 a barrel on Wednesday; prices eased, but still remain close to $100 a barrel. "Should high rates of overall inflation persist," Bernanke said, "the possibility also exists that inflation expectations could become less well-anchored." If people think inflation is escalating, they will act in ways that could make things even worse, a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. Bernanke said that could complicate the Fed's job of trying to nurture growth while keeping inflation under control. If oil prices continue to skyrocket this year, it would be "hard to maintain low inflation," Bernanke acknowledged. ![]() Truth And Lending Mortgage Corp. - 664 North Highland Ave - Atlanta, GA 30306 Office Phone: 404-817-3526 Fax: 404-817-3349 Cell Phone: 404-456-8291 E-mail: laura@truthandlending.com Website: www.truthandlending.com We lend in the following states: GA © 2008 Myers Internet, Inc. All Rights Reserved Powered by: Myers Internet, Inc. | Admin Login |